"Q4 doesn't forgive last-minute planning." How companies can safely navigate through the peak season.
While many are still mentally savoring the end of summer, the countdown to the year-end business has long since begun in global supply chains. Between the aftermath of Golden Week in Asia, preparations for Black Friday, and the Christmas shopping season, global freight capacities by sea, rail, and air reliably reach their limits every year.
What does this mean specifically for shipping companies? We asked our expert Christoph Helfrich. In an in-depth interview, he explains where the typical bottlenecks lie, why the spot market becomes a cost trap in autumn, and what levers companies can use to avoid a lot of stress.
Christoph, on LinkedIn you warned: "Q4 doesn't forgive last-minute planning." Why do so many companies still find themselves sweating it out in the fourth quarter every year?
Because the dynamics of autumn are often underestimated. The fourth quarter comes as no surprise to anyone – and yet many companies plan as if it were April or May. In autumn, however, several factors converge: Production in Asia runs at full capacity before and after Golden Week, retailers stock up for Black Friday and the Christmas season, and at the same time, many companies want to meet budgets or delivery targets before the end of the year. When everyone demands freight space at the same time, global networks simply reach their capacity limits. Those who only start planning when the goods are ready for transport at the loading dock are merely playing catch-up.
What mistakes do you see most frequently in practice during this phase?
The biggest mistake is to calculate with the same lead times as during the rest of the year. A transport that can be reliably completed in a few days in spring needs buffer time in autumn. The problem rarely lies solely on the main route by plane or ship – the real bottlenecks occur at the hubs: overloaded transshipment warehouses, congestion during pickups and deliveries in the pre- and post-carriage, or shortages of truck drivers. Those who don't plan for these buffers from the outset lose valuable days that are almost impossible to make up later.
You often talk about securing cargo space early – but you can't even book it for autumn in July or August. What does early planning really mean in practice?
A crucial point. You can't simply reserve cargo space for late autumn with a click of the mouse in the middle of summer – airlines and shipping companies usually only open their booking windows a few weeks before departure. Planning ahead therefore doesn't mean: 'I'll just book three months earlier,' but rather: the leverage lies much further upstream in the chain.
The key is to manage your own suppliers and build buffers into production. Planning for goods to arrive at the port only at the beginning of December is like playing Russian roulette. If the ship is then delayed by ten to fourteen days – which is not uncommon during the busy autumn traffic – you'll immediately start sweating. It's almost always more economically sound to manage production so that the goods arrive in November, even if you have to store them for a while. Storage costs can be calculated; a delivery disruption during the Christmas season cannot.
And what happens when the actual booking windows open? What happens on the spot market?
As soon as the booking windows open, speed and clear communication are crucial. Those who hesitate and speculate on day-by-day spot deals almost always end up paying more in the year-end rush. On the spot market, remaining spaces are auctioned off – expensive and, above all, unpredictable. Worse than the price, however, is the risk of rolled cargo: that the container remains at the quay or the pallet at the airport because other shippers have offered more. Those who have thoroughly prepared their shipment data and requirements with us in advance can book immediately as soon as the windows open, thus securing their actual shipment.
Not every shipment can be prepared months in advance. How do you keep a supply chain flexible when cargo space is scarce?
By strategically splitting shipments instead of thinking in rigid "all-or-nothing" patterns, the entire batch often doesn't need to arrive at once. A classic example: A customer urgently needs goods for production ramp-up or initial delivery commitments. In this case, we prioritize a portion of the shipment via air freight or express delivery. The remaining large quantity is shipped simultaneously by sea or rail. This alleviates the extreme time pressure on the overall order, ensures delivery capability, and conserves liquidity because expensive emergency freight charges aren't incurred for the entire volume.
One often overlooked issue is customs documentation. Why does a formal error in the fourth quarter have such serious consequences?
Because the systems' tolerance threshold is zero in Q4. Our colleague Yvonne Bono rightly emphasizes this point repeatedly regarding customs: customs doesn't slow things down, poor preparation does. If the terminals are already packed to capacity and a shipment gets stuck in manual inspection or even a customs examination due to an unclear description, an incorrect tariff number, or incomplete documentation, the freight is impassable. While such issues can be resolved within 24 hours in the summer, customs stations and warehouses simply lack the capacity for special cases in November. Every formal error means demurrage charges and delays lasting several days. Accurate data before shipment is the best insurance in the fourth quarter.
How exactly does LGX support its customers during this busy period of the year?
We don't see ourselves as a freight broker who simply sends out a booking number. During peak season, it's about proactive planning. We meet with our customers early, analyze the anticipated volumes for the coming weeks, and reserve reliable capacity in a timely manner. And if something does go wrong at any point in the chain—for example, due to weather-related flight cancellations or shipping delays—we react immediately with alternative routes before the customer even notices a problem. Our motto is: We always find a way.
If you had to give entrepreneurs and logistics managers a single guiding principle for the coming weeks, what would it be?
The year-end business can't be postponed – but the stress beforehand can definitely be avoided. Those who sit down with their logistics partner now and set clear priorities will have a relaxed fourth quarter, while others are still searching for freight space.
And what about those whose plans for the coming weeks aren't quite watertight yet?
Get in touch with our crew. Whether via a quick message on LinkedIn or a direct phone call: We'll take a look at your shipments and ensure that your cargo arrives on time where it's needed.
Dear Christoph, thank you very much for the conversation and the clear practical tips!
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